Anyone have a cache of election night 2004?

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Thursday June 22, 2006 · 2:26 AM PDT

2006/06/22 · 02:26

I'm working on a model to predict the outcomes of individual races and control of the house/senate on election night this November. To make it more accurate I'd like to test the model on data from past election nights.

What I'm looking for is a bunch of snapshots of results pages like this one which would give a picture of how returns came in as the night progressed.

Ideally it would have maybe one snapshot every 5 or 10 minutes, with the results in each state broken down by county, and include senate/house races in addition to the presidential race... but anything is better than nothing!

Surely someone on dKos had the foresight to save some of these pages for future reference. Or maybe there's some general-purpose caching tool out there that would have it (something like google's cache, but updated more frequently)? Any tips would be appreciated!

Ayatollah Sistani has left Iraq

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Sunday August 08, 2004 · 6:01 AM PDT

2004/08/08 · 06:01

(via Odd Hours) Lebanese paper The Daily Star reports that Grand Ayatollah Sistani has flown to London for treatment of a heart condition. Juan Cole speculates that Sistani may have feared being "taken hostage" by Muqtada al-Sadr. The heart condition may be mere pretext. Prof. Cole also speculates on Sistani's probable "successor" as the leading moderate voice of Iraqi Shiism. I take this to mean that Cole thinks Sistani will be gone for quite some time.

The American/European media hasn't really picked this up, so it's hard to get much information. Sistani was a major player, though, so it seems like this could really change the power dynamic in Iraq.

Playing politics with the terror alert system

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Tuesday August 03, 2004 · 3:25 AM PDT

2004/08/03 · 03:25

Just finished a post over at Odd Hours on how the most recent "location-specific" style of terror alert could potentially be abused on election day. It's one thing for the Bush campaign to try to scare voters using a generic, nationwide Orange or even Red alert. But an alert on or before election day specifically targeting Democratic areas of swing states could be deveastating. If this week's terror alert was specifically targeted to New York, Newark and Washington, what's to prevent an alert on November 2nd being targeted to Philadelphia, Cleveland, Palm Beach and St. Louis?

They wouldn't even have to close the polls. In a close election, all it would take is lower turnout in heavily Democratic areas of a few key swing states. By targeting their terror alerts to those areas, they scare a certain fraction of the voters into staying home instead of going to the polls. In close states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and Florida, depressed turnout in Democratic areas could be enough to push the whole state into the Bush column.

Full analysis at Odd Hours, plus what we can do about it.

October surprise

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Wednesday June 16, 2004 · 12:10 AM PDT

2004/06/16 · 00:10

Everyone's heard the conspiracy theory that Bush & Co. could try to pull a red/orange alert to delay or cancel the presidential election if they believe they are likely to lose. The problem with such theories is that it's very hard to back them up with any evidence. One clue has recently arisen, though. The futures market Tradesports.com has created contracts where traders can bid on the chances of various alert levels in each month from now until the end of the year. The early results:

A red alert is significantly more likely in October/November than in any other month;
The chance of an orange alert in October is more than double the chance of an orange alert in any other month!

Historically, futures markets have a good track record of predicting the likelihood of future events. They are more effective than polls at predicting election outcomes, for example. Still, these data are tenuous and the conclusions should be viewed as somewhat speculative. The possibility of Bush & Co. manipulating the terror alert system to forestall elections is only one potential way to explain the data.

Over at Odd Hours I've posted a more detailed analysis, including other possible interpretations of the data.

GOP banner ad

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Friday April 16, 2004 · 11:03 AM PDT

2004/04/16 · 11:03

(cross-posted from Odd Hours) I almost never click on banner ads, but here's one I just saw:

When you click on it, it takes you straight to www.GOP.com, where you find out, in tiny print they hope nobody will read, what Kerry actually said:

Mr. McMANUS: If that amendment does not pass, will you then vote against the $87 billion?

Sen. KERRY: I don't think any United States senator is going to abandon our troops and recklessly leave Iraq to--to whatever follows as a result of simply cutting and running. That's irresponsible.

I'm no fan of Kerry's vote against the $87 billion, and I'm no fan of his hedging answer to this question, which not only refuses to give a straight yes or no answer, but also reads an accusation into the question that just isn't there. Kerry should have said, "If the amendment does not pass, then, absolutely, I will vote against the $87 billion," and explained why.

But in no sense does Kerry's answer confirm the implication the ad is trying to make, namely that Kerry publicly renounced his vote after the fact, accusing himself of "abandoning our troops" and characterizing his own decision as "reckless" and "irresponsible."

Any lawyers out there know if this qualifies as libel?

Supply line crisis

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Monday April 12, 2004 · 12:00 PM PDT

2004/04/12 · 12:00

There have been a lot of rumors recently about US supply line troubles in Iraq. I've been scouring the news, but there was nothing until this morning. Now it comes out: there are two separate supply line problems. One is in Fallujah, where marines have been cut off from Baghdad. Insurgents control the 30-mile stretch of road behind them. The other, possibly more ominous problem is in the South. There are only a few routes from Baghdad to the Persian Gulf. From this map it appears to be possible to cut off all routes by controlling just two cities, Nasiriyah and Kut. In fact, the US has been battling for control of these two cities over the course of the last few days.

If the southern supply lines are cut, troops in Baghdad will be cut off and isolated. I'm not sure how grave the consequences would be. Theoretically, troops in central Iraq could still be supplied from the north, via Turkey, or by airlift. But I don't think the US military is prepared to supply them that way. At the very least it would be an enormous hassle, requiring months of restructuring.

Finally, this administration will negotiate

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Monday April 12, 2004 · 8:50 AM PDT

2004/04/12 · 08:50

(cross-posted from Odd Hours) The US has signaled its willingness to negotiate settlements to its outstanding conflicts in Iraq. Ceasefires have been called at Fallujah, Najaf and Karbala. It's about time.

Juan Cole has some tips for US negotiators. He explains from a cultural standpoint how the Iraqis are likely to approach mediation.

To be sure, the administration is only now willing to negotiate because it is in a position of profound weakness. Broken supply lines mean that even if US forces may eventually have the ability to retake the lost cities by force, they are not in a position to do so right now. It's hard to find much information right now about the supply problem, but it's not too difficult to guess what's happening. Troops in central Iraq rely on supply routes from the Persian Gulf through Southern Iraq to Baghdad. As long as the Shiite-populated south remained calm, marines fighting in Fallujah could rely on a steady stream of supplies arriving from the south: gasoline, ammunition, and so on. But the Sadrist rebellion has put these supply routes in jeopardy. Read More

Does Kerry have a plan for Iraq???

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Sunday April 11, 2004 · 6:25 PM PDT

2004/04/11 · 18:25

Newsweek's new cover story compares Iraq and Vietnam. I'm not going to analyze the comparison in detail, but two things struck me. First, while the Vietnam war was on a scale far larger than what is going on in Iraq -- it involved a higher level of American troop commitment and a much higher casualty rate -- Vietnam, too, started out as a small-scale conflict. We just couldn't stop it from escalating. That brings me to my second point. The recent difficulties we've had in Iraq are sure to provoke calls for more troops. Many Americans seem to accept the need for more troops, at least in the short term. The idea of sending more troops to Iraq is not unreasonable, and it should be considered. At the same time, we should be wary of allowing Iraq to escalate into the same sort of quagmire as Vietnam. Daniel Schorr reminds us of the Vietnam-era meaning of quagmire: Read More

Have US troops lost control of Baghdad?

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Friday April 09, 2004 · 8:31 PM PDT

2004/04/09 · 20:31

(cross-posted from Odd Hours)Buried near the bottom of a NY Times article, this quote is a real shocker:

"We absolutely must regain control of Baghdad and open the lines of communication to the south, to Kuwait and down to the sea, or the position will become untenable," said Barry McCaffrey, a retired four-star general and the commander of the 24th Mechanized Division in the 1991 Persian Gulf war. "We have got to get back the road through Najaf and through Al Kut, and Rick Sanchez has the combat power to do it."

Juan Cole's interpretation:

He gave away a great deal. One may conclude that a) the US has lost control of Baghdad and b) the US communications and supply lines in the South have been cut. That is, a year after the fall of Saddam, the US faces the task of reconquering the country.

One has to wonder, if US troops have lost control of Baghdad, why isn't the media reporting it? According to Cole, General McCaffrey made those remarks in a CNN interview. In that case, why isn't this CNN's headline? "Retired general says US troops have lost control of Baghdad." Go read CNN's front-page article and tell me if you get the impression US troops have lost control of Baghdad. I didn't think so. The article makes it seem like the Iraqi capital is experiencing nothing worse than a tense atmosphere and a few isolated skirmishes. Either General McCaffrey is off his rocker, or the media is being extremely dishonest about what's going on in Iraq.

Powell on Pakistan: How craven can you get?

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Friday March 19, 2004 · 8:31 AM PST

2004/03/19 · 08:31

(cross-posted from Odd Hours) This administration is so desperate to find Osama Bin Laden that they will do anything for Pakistan's help. Last month the administration sank to a new low, sanctioning the pardon of a Pakistani nuclear scientist who sold nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Now comes Pakistan's new diplomatic designation as a "major non-NATO ally." In practical terms, this designation doesn't mean a lot--basically, it makes it easier for Pakistan to buy weapons from US defense contractors--but in Colin Powell's announcement yesterday, the PR surrounding this farce reached new levels of absurdity: Read More

The Arab-American vote

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Friday March 19, 2004 · 1:38 AM PST

2004/03/19 · 01:38

(cross-posted from Odd Hours) The new Zogby poll confirms what many have speculated about the Arab-American vote. Arab-Americans in four swing states prefer Kerry over Bush 54% to 30%. Unfortunately, when Nader is included he takes an enormous 20%, cutting Kerry's lead to 43-27. Still, this is a huge swing from 2000, when the same sample of voters preferred Bush over Gore 46% to 29%. Over at The Big Picture there's a chart comparing the number of Arab-Americans in key swing states to the margin of victory in the 2000 presidential race.

Zogby says that Arab-Americans tend to vote in higher proportion than the population at large. I couldn't find turnout figures for 2000, but 62% of Arab-Americans turned out to vote in 1996. In the following chart, I've used these figures to estimate how the Arab-American vote will split in 2004 in the four states polled by Zogby:

			2000		2004
	Arab-Americans	Turnout	Bush	Gore	Bush	Kerry	Total Swing	Percentage
Florida	120,000	74,400	34,224	21,576	20,088	31,992	24,552	0.41%
Michigan	235,000	145,700	67,022	42,253	39,339	62,651	48,081	1.14%
Ohio	85,000	52,700	24,242	15,283	14,229	22,661	17,391	0.37%
Pennsylvania	75,000	46,500	21,390	13,485	12,555	19,995	15,345	0.31%

The second to last column totals the number of net votes gained by the Democrats. In Florida, for example, Bush loses about 14,000 Arab-American votes and Kerry gains about 10,000 for a total swing of 24,552 votes. The last column is the size of this swing as a percentage of the total voter turnout. Since nearly 6 million people voted in Florida in 2000, those 24,552 extra votes represent only about 0.4% of the total votes cast.

Conclusion: While the swings are not huge, they do make a difference. With the kind of support Arab-Americans are now showing for Democrats in the polls, Gore would have won Florida by 24,015 votes, increased his lead over Bush in Michigan to over 6%, and just about come within 3% of Bush in Ohio.

Bush campaign ads vs. the facts

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Wednesday March 17, 2004 · 11:49 PM PST

2004/03/17 · 23:49

(cross-posted from Odd Hours) Josh Marshall points out some of the blatant factual inaccuracies in the latest Bush campaign ad, which you can watch here. I recommend watching all the ads, as it's always good to know what the opposition is saying. The ad entitled "troops" accuses Kerry of voting against higher combat pay, body armor and better health care for US troops. These were line items in the $87 billion spending bill on Iraq that Kerry voted against last year. While I'm not a big fan of Kerry's vote against the $87 billion, it's hardly fair to start characterizing a vote against an enormous spending bill as a vote against each of its miniscule line items, especially when

And in case anyone thinks this is just the usual partisan bickering, here's a nonpartisan critique of the ad from Factcheck.org.

Karl Rove is famous for his ability to run successful campaigns that completely disregard the facts. He's been quoted as saying that political campaigns should be run as if voters are "watching TV with the sound off." Josh Marshall wonders whether he'll be able to get away with it this time around, when the facts are often just a google search away.

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